Utah experiences largest population spike in 16 years.
Here's where people are moving:
SALT LAKE CITY — You don't have to travel far into Utah County to find signs of its enormous growth, says Curtis Blair, the president and CEO of the Utah Valley Chamber of Commerce.
"You just take a trip down into Utah Valley and you will see cranes ... and new building taking place," he said, during a population roundtable discussion inside the Thomas S. Monson Center at the University of Utah Thursday. "It is happening right in front of us. We have a front-row seat to the growth that is taking place."That's because Utah County was once again at the center of the state's growth in 2022, adding 23,980 people — double any other county in the state of the past year, according to a new population estimate report released by the University's Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Thursday.
Utah's estimated population skyrocketed by a little more than 61,000 people
Overall, Utah's estimated population skyrocketed by a little more than 61,000 people between July 2021 and July 2022, marking the state's largest spike in absolute growth since 2006. It pushes the state's population to a little more than 3.4 million people. The report also notes that all of Utah's counties grew over the past year, aside from Daggett County, which declined by six people.
More people are moving to the state or were born than moving out
The state's population rise is a mixture of net migration and natural increase from July 1, 2021, and the start of this July, meaning more people are moving to the state or were born than moving out or dying in that span of time. Net migration accounted for an estimated 38,141 more residents, while natural increase — childbirths vs. deaths — accounted for another 23,101 residents.
This shows that Utah is a magnet, attracting people from outside of it to move in. In fact, the state's net migration levels are the highest demographers have ever seen since the end of World War II in the 1940s, according to Natalie Gochnour, the director of the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute.
"We did see a similar high in 2005. This is actually a little bit higher than that ... but, yeah, if you look outside of the post-World War II era, we're hitting the peak right now," added Mallory Bateman, the director of demographic research at the Gardner Policy Institute, and one of the report's authors.
This decade-best growth could be short-lived, however. Rising interest rates, shifts in the labor market and supply shortages that are slowing down home construction since July could curb some of the numbers between 2022 and 2023. Bateman explained that Thursday's report may show "the lead up to a little bit of a slowdown" in the state's growth.
The growing Wasatch Front
The Wasatch Front is once again where the state's population is growing the most, as the four most-populated counties accounted for more than two-thirds of the state's growth over the past year — led by Utah County.
The county's population boost is spurred by having both the highest net migration and highest natural increase; the institute estimates that its net migration grew by 15,394 people, while its natural increase jumped by 8,586 people. The growth pushes Utah County's estimated population up to 707,602 overall, second behind Salt Lake County's 1.2 million residents.
The state's most-populated county gained close to another 10,000 residents over the past year, placing second in absolute growth. Davis County placed third in absolute growth, adding 5,708 residents, while Washington (4,276) and Cache (2,996) counties rounded out the top five.
This graphic shows the percentage share of all Utah counties to Utah's estimated population growth between July 2021 and July 2022. Utah County had the largest share of the growth. (Photo: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute)
Most of the growth is coming from net migration
Most of the growth is coming from net migration, which accounts for 57% of the region's growth and 62% of the state's overall growth.
There are a couple of reasons for net migration to lead the way. First, Utah's economy and desirability are drawing in talent from outside of the state. The state's schools are also drawing in students, who may end up joining the state's workforce.
Bateman explained that data pulled in from the Census Bureau seems to indicate that many people are coming to Utah from California and Texas, which she says likely has to do more with the sheer population of both states than anything else.
"It really says something about where we're headed as a state," Blair said. "From Utah Valley's perspective — like the baby-making capital — we're seeing net migration having a greater impact for growth in terms of resident population in this estimate period, through July 1. It's something we really feel and see every day. I think that this conversation about growth is important because we believe that tying growth into prosperity is the key."
The other reason is some stagnation in natural increase. Utah did experience the first increase in births since 2015; however, some of the gains in the natural increase were overshadowed by rises in deaths tied to COVID-19 and other causes. Laura Hanson, the state planning coordinator for the Utah Governor's Office of Planning and Budget said it's a "sobering" reminder of the impact COVID-19 has had.
There's also plenty of growth yet to come in the region.
Eagle Mountain is a prime example of what's still waiting on the horizon. It held a population estimated just shy of 50,000 in 2021 but the city has about as many building permits currently in the works as it has buildings now, according to Blair.
"That will double Eagle Mountain just if those permits get through the next three to five years," he said.
Lehi, Vineyard and Saratoga Springs are also growing at extensional rates, and there are no signs of that stopping anytime soon.
Salt Lake County, while more "built out" than Utah County, also has room to grow. State officials just celebrated the start of tearing down the old Utah State Prison in Draper this week, which will pave the way for a 600-acre development known as The Point. And in Salt Lake City, buildings are growing taller and taller; city officials noted earlier this year that the residential capacity of downtown is projected to double in the near future as a result of new high-rises in the area.
Similar stories are also happening in the northern half of the Wasatch Front, as the region continues to attract the largest chunk of Utah's growth.
Seeking to gain growth elsewhere
Growth has been a different challenge for rural counties because of how unevenly distributed the state's growth is.
"Ring counties" — places just outside of the main population cores — topped the state in percentage growth, though. Iron County's 4.3% growth led all of the counties, as an estimated 2,625 people were added over the past year. Wasatch County (3.8%) placed second, adding 1,362 residents. Kane and Utah counties (3.5% each), as well as Rich County (3.3%) rounded out the top five in percentage growth.
I think it's a challenge for our state as we're thinking about how we grow — how to manage the areas where we're bursting at the seams but also direct growth to areas that would like to see economic development and increase.
–Laura Hanson, Utah Governor's Office of Planning and Budget
As the main clusters eventually build out, those who oversee rural commutes are hoping that it leads to growth spilling into their communities. Price Mayor Michael Kourianos, for instance, touts the housing affordability and quality of life in central Utah, a region sandwiched between the southern end of the Wasatch Front and southern Utah's red rocks.
"People don't realize how nice our area is. That's one thing that's a hidden gem for us," he said.
The mayor uses a recent Rocky Mountain Power call center as an example of how there is interest in the region. The center started with 20 jobs when it opened but has already grown to 75 jobs, simply from the demand.
This is something that plays out in other rural counties, as they seek growth, Hanson said.
"I think it's a challenge for our state as we're thinking about how we grow — how to manage the areas where we're bursting at the seams but also direct growth to areas that would like to see economic development and increase," she said.
A cooldown in 2023?
The Gardner Policy Institute figures are based on datasets similar to the U.S. Census Bureau, but with local figures that calculate populations between July 1, 2021, and July 1, 2022, Bateman said. The bureau is scheduled to release its own national and state population estimates later this month. Its countywide and municipal estimates data is expected to be released in early 2023, which will show how Utah's growth compares to other parts of the country.
This also means that the data in the report reflects Utah on July 1. While the Beehive State is in the midst of its largest absolute growth in over a decade, the report's authors are bracing for a potential cooldown when they review the data again in 2023.
One reason is "significant lags in construction" as a result of supply chain and other issues. This is making it take longer to build a new home or apartment complex, which results in a longer wait for someone to move into the building, Bateman explained.
"The biggest factor is that these delays in permit to final construction are quite a bit longer than what we've been experiencing for the last (little bit)," she said.
Higher interest rates since July 1 have also slowed down the housing market;
Meanwhile, Gochnour said that Utah's economy has shown signs of slowing down from its torrid pace over the past year. Utah's unemployment remained at 2.1% in October, a slight increase after dipping to 1.9% in August — though it remains well above the 3.7% national rate.
What that means for the state's population growth on July 1, 2023, remains to be seen. Utah isn't alone in these challenges, and it's possible that it will still draw in new residents because it's in a better position than other areas.
"We've had 31 or 32 years of net in-migration. We've hit into the three-decade world of (it)," she said. "That leads me to believe that we will continue to be an attraction state."
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Ho-ho-ho! As December rolls around, it’s about time to ramp up the Christmas spirit in the household. Here’s a running list of Christmas-themed activities and events in Utah that families can enjoy together during this holiday season:
SALT LAKE CITY
Hogle Zoo’s ZooLights
The 16th annualZooLights is back at Hogle Zoo. The event features light displays of animals, characters and holiday scenes around the zoo starting Dec. 2 from 5:30 p.m. to 9 p.m. There will also be an “around the world-themed” scavenger hunt, a 135-foot kaleidoscopic light tunnel, a 20-foot grand tree and visits from Santa.
ZooLights members get $3 off their tickets, and children 2 years old and under can go for free. Tickets for adults (13+) are $14.95, and children between three to 12 years old can get in for $11.95.
The Nutcracker at Capitol Theatre
The longest-running production of The Nutcracker is back! With the lowest tickets priced at $30, the performance will run through Dec. 24 at the Capitol Theatre in downtown Salt Lake City.
Embark on a fantastical journey with young Clara on Christmas Eve as she travels to the Land of Sweets, where she encounters magical beings like the Sugar Plum Fairy and the evil Mouse King. Led by Tchaikovsky’s score and Willam Christensen’s choreography, Salt Lake City’s very own dance company, Ballet West, puts up a well-beloved production that attracts thousands of patrons from all across Utah each year.
Pioneer Theatre Company’s A Christmas StoryMusical
The Pioneer Theatre Company (PTC), one of the four professional theatre companies in Utah, is presenting A Christmas Story, The Musical from Dec. 9 to Dec. 24. PTC’s production is adapted from a Tony-nominated musical based on the 1983 film. The musical will be directed and choreographed by Karen Azenberg, PTC’s artistic director. The music and lyrics are written by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul.
The story follows 10-year-old Ralphie Parker in 1940 as he sets out on an adventure of a lifetime on Christmas Day looking for a very specific gift no one seems to be able to grant him.
The showing times are as follows: Monday to Thursday, 7 p.m.; Friday and Saturday, 7:30 p.m.; Saturday, 2 p.m.; Dec. 24: 12 p.m. and 5 p.m. Ticket prices are set between $48 – $72 if bought in advance. They will be $5 more expensive on the day of the show. Children aged 5 to 18 get half-priced tickets Monday through Thursday.
Holidays at The Leonardo
The Leonardo, a science and art museum in Salt Lake City, is hosting a series of Christmas-themed workshops throughout December. The longest-running workshop is the Gingerbread Lane Workshop where families and friends can learn to build a gingerbread house from the master, Jon Lovitch, himself. Tickets cost $25.
What’s Christmas without some snow? The museum is also offering a one-time workshop on snow globe-making on Saturday, Dec. 10. Tickets are $20 per person.
Utah Symphony Christmas Performances
Utah’s very own symphony orchestra is hosting a number of Christmas-themed performances throughout December. “Here Comes Santa Claus” brings to life all your favorite Christmas classic tunes on stage at the Abravanel Hall on Dec. 17 at 11 a.m. and 12:30 p.m. The symphony will bring the performance to Ogden as well on Dec. 12 at 7 p.m. at Val A. Browning Center.
P.S. There may or may not be a special appearance by Santa himself. Ticket prices range from $5 to $26 before tax.
Another performance parents can take their children to is Tim Burton’s The Night Before Christmas in Concert. Showtimes are 7 p.m. from Dec. 21 to Dec. 23. Tickets for this show are slightly more expensive, with the cheapest ticket priced at $22.50 before tax.
Holiday Open House and Art Fair at Red Butte Garden
Thanks to Salt Lake County Zoo, Arts & Parks, admission is free for the holiday open house and art fair at Red Butte Garden on Dec. 3 and Dec. 4 from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. Patrons can find handmade gifts from local artists including jewelry, glass art, natural soaps and more. The event will be held at the Richard K. Hemingway Orangerie.
Window Stroll and Giant Gingerbread House at the Grand America Hotel
What is made out of 150 pounds of Rice Krispies, 80 pounds of chocolate, 2000 eggs and tons of other sweet stuff?
A life-size gingerbread house.
The Grand America Hotel in downtown Salt Lake City has had a long-standing tradition of creating a giant gingerbread house for its guests, and this year is no exception. Staff members reportedly spent 950 hours assembling the exhibit this time.
Patrons who answer a quick quiz about Fig’s adventure will be entered into a drawing for a one-night stay at the hotel.
Salt Lake Children’s Choir Christmas Carols Concert
The Salt Lake Children’s Choir will be hosting a Christmas concert at the Cathedral of the Madeleine on Dec. 2 at 8 p.m. and Dec. 4 at 8 p.m. Admission is free, but donations are encouraged.
Following a tradition that began in 1984, this year’s concert will feature works by Bach and other familiar carols from all around the world, including “The Wexford Carol,” “Lo, How a Rose E’er Blooming,” “O Leave Your Sheep,” “Still, Still, Still,” “Il est né le Divine Enfant,” and the Finnish carol, “Arkiluosi kaikka heita.” The audience will be invited to join in several carols as the evening comes to an end.
MILLCREEK
Skating at Millcreek Common
The Millcreek Common Skate Loop, the largest skating rink in Utah, has just recently opened for business. The rink will be open from 9 a.m. to 10 p.m. daily starting Dec. 22 through Jan. 2, 2023. Otherwise, operating hours can be found on their website. Tickets are priced at $7.
PARK CITY
Deer Valley’s Visit with Santa Claus and Torchlight Parade
Should you happen to be having fun at Deer Valley Resort on Christmas Eve, remember that Santa Claus will be stopping by Snow Park Lodge from 9 a.m. to 11 a.m. and Silver Lake Lodge from noon to 1:30 p.m. before his long evening run.
On Dec. 30, Deer Valley will be hosting its annual Torchlight Parade at dusk, which may be around 6 p.m. on Big Stick Ski Run on Bald Eagle Mountain. Complimentary hot chocolate, cider and cookies will be served on the Snow Park Plaza from 5:30 p.m. to 7:30 p.m.
OGDEN
Breakfast with Santa
Ogden’s infamous Christmas Village will be lit up through Jan. 1, 2023, from 5 p.m. to midnight every day. Aside from being able to meet Santa six days a week in the village, families can also have breakfast with the jolly man himself and Mrs. Claus on Saturday, Dec. 10, at the Ogden Union Station from 9 a.m. to 11 a.m.
Linda Secrist & Associates is the top selling team in luxury homes in the SLC Market. They have received countless awards over the past 20 years, including “Sales Team of The Year” for over 10 years including 2019! Linda Secrist is #54 in the top 100 Agents in the World in luxury residential real estate. If you’re searching for homes in Sandy, Salt Lake, Cottonwood Heights, Millcreek, Draper, South Jordan, Bountiful, Centerville, Farmington or anywhere in northern Utah, Linda Secrist & Associates are the real estate agents to call. If you’re buying or selling a home, don’t hesitate to text or call us at 801-455-9999!
